Used combine values are a big concern lately for both dealers and farmers. This is especially true going into the high demand August market with a tight supply of farm equipment. In June, Sullivan held the significant AHW dealer auction. With a listing heavy in combines, it provided a great look at the market’s direction when analyzed in tandem with Iron Comps’ equipment values. We choose a few significant harvesters to gauge the top, bottom, and middle of the sale so to better gauge what the market may look like in August during prime combine season.
Harvester sales at this Sullivan auction ranged from $61,000 for a 15-year-old Case-IH 2377 to a 2018 John Deere S780 2WD valued at $288,000. In addition to studying these bookends, a 2017 S680 4WD with relatively low hours and some bells and whistles was also worth looking at.
The Case 2377 may temper an overly bullish outlook on this market. With just over 2,000K separator hours, $55,000 would have been justified based on the 2019 and 2020 values graph shown below.
10% above expectation may seem positive but compare that to the most recent sale where a similar model with 3,000 sep hours sold for $67,000. This is similar to other recent Iron Comps findings where we’ve seen older machines experiencing a modest single-digit year over year increase in expected values.
John Deere S780
At the top of the auction was a 2018 John Deere S780 with 640 separator hours. This lot had a good number of premium features, bringing $288,000. The Iron Comps database is full of these S780 for quality comparison. With all the variables in play, we need to look at close comparables to truly judge market movement. In the graph on the next page, the orange square represents where this AHW combine ranks in terms of separator hours and sale price.
Our AHW S780 is on the top end of expected values for its hours when compared to the past three years. High, but certainly not an outlier. When we opened up the Iron Comps Auction Results to pull comps with the most recent sale date and similar hours. We discovered two insights. When compared to similar lots with similar hours at dealer auctions this combine’s value was on par with other S780’s in 2021. When compared to lots from 2020 though, the AHW’s value was about 15% higher.
John Deere S680
Having explored the top and bottom of these used combine values, we now open it up to see if a mid-hour combine falls somewhere in between. We picked a 2017 John Deere S680 4WD sold for $186,000 with just over 1,000 separator hours. Below is the full auctioneer’s description:
2017 John Deere S680 4wd combine, ProDrive trans., ContourMaster feederhouse w/CommandTouch 5 spd. drive & hyd. fore/aft, 26’ unload auger, chopper, PowerCast tailboard, bin extension w/tip-ups, 520/Interactive Combine Adjust, ActiveYield, LED lights, premium cab, 1,445 eng./1,071 sep. hours, SN 1H0S680SPG0795113
Comparing our S680 with other 2021 sales, the value is very much in line with others in the Iron Comps database. For comparison, a similar model sold in late March of 2021 at a consignment auction in Minnesota for $200,000. While this comp did have a refrigerator, the other options were similar and reinforce the theory that 2021 values may have hit a top and stabilized for now.
Iron Comps has dozens of potential filters to find just the right comps. Here we chose to slice by hours and auction type. This helps us view only the S680’s between 900 – 1100 hours sold at dealer auctions. Assessed against these historic equipment values, the AHW S680’s sale price exceeds 2019 and 2020 values by almost 30%!
Big movements in used equipment values tend to coincide directionally with significant commodity price changes. You should expect 10–30% over last year, depending on the equipment. Yet, with the exception of wheat at the time of writing this, current cooling of the corn and soybean markets may be tapping the brakes on the rising used equipment values. Another major factor at play will be the necessary demand of combines prior to harvest. Will a tight supply of new and late models force prices even higher? Will downward pressure of the grain markets have any significant negative effect? To answer these questions, keep your Iron Comps open and your eyes on the most recent sales!